The Zurich-Mandala Climate Risk Index: The impact of climate change on Australia's schools
02.02.2025 - 11:17
For the first time, the Zurich-Mandala Climate Risk Index has been used to analyse the risk of climate change to 9,829 primary and secondary schools across Australia. The index uses IPCC climate modelling along with Zurich's proprietary climate impact assessments to understand the unique risks faced by individual schools. Extreme heat is projected to reduce writing, spelling, grammar & punctuation, and numeracy by over 7% in some parts of the country by 2060, with students in the Northern Territory and Queensland disproportionately impacted. Two-thirds of schools in Australia currently face high climate risk. This is set to increase to 84% of schools by 2060 under an intermediate climate scenario with 2 degrees Celsius of warming. Australian students are projected to experience 34 annual heatwave days by 2060.
Two thirds of schools in Australia face high climate risk.
For the first time, the Zurich-Mandala Climate Risk Index has been used to analyse the risk of climate change to 9,829 primary and secondary schools across Australia.
The index uses IPCC climate modelling along with Zurich's proprietary climate impact assessments to understand the unique risks faced by individual schools.
Extreme heat is projected to reduce writing, spelling, grammar & punctuation, and numeracy by over 7% in some parts of the country by 2060, with students in the Northern Territory and Queensland disproportionately impacted.
Two-thirds of schools in Australia currently face high climate risk. This is set to increase to 84% of schools by 2060 under an intermediate climate scenario with 2 degrees Celsius of warming. Australian students are projected to experience 34 annual heatwave days by 2060.
Australian schools play a critical role in education and development. Australia’s primary and secondary education system supports over four million students and close to 350,000 teaching staff across nearly 10,000 schools.
Nearly half (45%) of schools are located in a regional or remote area and close to 35% of students attend a school categorised as having low ‘Socio-Educational Advantage’ (being within the lowest five deciles) compared with other schools in Australia.
The disparities evident between schools in Australia have been further exacerbated in recent years following major disruptions such as the global pandemic and climate change related weather events.
The latter, including heatwaves, bushfires and floods, can see schools closed for long periods of time, infrastructure destroyed, displacement of children and their families, reduced cognitive ability & function in students, impacts to student and teacher mental health, and reduced future employment outcomes and earning capacity.
With almost two thirds of children attending a government funded school, there is significant pressure on governments to support both mitigation and recovery efforts in the face of an increasingly volatile climate risk environment.
Key findings:
NSW and QLD have the highest volume of schools facing high climate risk
92% of schools in NSW and 91% of schools in QLD are in the highest three risk categories. The ACT and NT follow closely behind.
Disadvantaged schools face higher climate risk
Over 80% of Australian schools in the lowest Socio-Educational Advantage decile face significant climate risk, compared to around 60% of schools in the highest advantage decile.
Extreme heat could reduce academic attainment by over 7%
in parts of Australia by 2060. The NT and QLD are most severely impacted, particularly for numeracy scores.
Extreme heat could impact the lifetime earnings of students by $73,000
due to reduction in academic attainment. This is equivalent to losing one year’s average salary in Australia.
Read the full report here.
Read our latest posts
Reducing out-of-pocket costs for Australian healthcare consumers
In partnership with Private Healthcare Australia (PHA), our latest report reveals the increasing strain of out-of-pocket healthcare costs on Australian consumers. Without urgent action, these costs could reach $1.6 billion by 2030, driven by limited competition, lack of price transparency, and weak consumer protections. Costs have already surged 12% in the past year, and 330,000 Australians are expected to delay care due to affordability concerns. Transparent pricing and stronger protections could save consumers millions. Read our full analysis to understand the challenges—and the solutions—that could make healthcare more accessible for all.
27 Mar, 2025
The Social Dividend: An Actuarial Case for Higher Income Support
Our new report explores the full impact of increasing JobSeeker—not just the economic benefits, but also the significant social returns and efficiency savings. Using actuarial techniques, micro-data analysis, and leading econometric research, we quantify the broader benefits of raising JobSeeker to 90% of the Age Pension. Our findings show that every $100 invested delivers a $24 social return, improving health outcomes, reducing justice system interactions, and lowering long-term welfare dependence. Importantly, the efficiency savings outweigh any potential reduction in job search intensity. This report provides new insights into why increasing JobSeeker is both a smart investment and a necessary reform.
27 Mar, 2025
20-years of Fitted for Work driving employment success
To mark 20 years of Fitted for Work, Mandala Partners conducted an economic analysis to quantify the organisation’s impact. Our findings show that for every $1 invested, Fitted for Work delivers $2.19 in immediate economic benefits, unlocking $86 million in value over two decades by supporting 45,000 clients. The analysis highlights that Fitted for Work reduces job search duration by half compared to the national average, significantly improving employment outcomes. Notably, the organisation has expanded its support for older women, addressing a critical and growing need in the community.
27 Mar, 2025
The value of shifting to four-year parliamentary terms
This research quantifies significant benefits of extending Commonwealth House of Representatives' terms from three to four years. While Australia's states and territories have adopted four-year terms, the Commonwealth remains among only eight countries globally with three-year or shorter terms.Our analysis shows potential gains of $59-71 billion over 20 years through reducing election frequency. Benefits include $4.6 billion in avoided direct costs, $40.7 billion in enhanced business investment from reduced electoral uncertainty, and $14-26 billion through improved government policy.
17 Mar, 2025