
Net Zero Transitions
31.10.2023 - 05:59
The global energy transition will fundamentally change the composition of the Australian economy. This change will be felt sharply in coal mining. Government forecasts predict that Australia’s coal exports will fall by 50-80% in volume over the next two decades. Our research looks at transition outcomes for workers, and how governments can take a tailored approach to responding.
The global energy transition will fundamentally change the composition of the Australian economy.
This change will be felt sharply in coal mining. Government forecasts predict that Australia’s coal exports will fall by 50-80% in volume over the next two decades.
Workers in some occupations will be able to find new jobs easily within their existing occupation and existing location. But other workers will need to relocate, retrain and reskill to find new work.
Understanding these differences will help governments and businesses to better target supports to the individuals and communities that need it most. Critically, it underscores the need for a coordinated and strategic approach.

We studied a coal mine in New England as a case study.
We used microdata on job advertisements to estimate how long it will take workers to find new jobs if the mine closes based on their occupation and whether they have to relocate within NSW or nationally.
We do this through a two-step methodology:
1. We measure how many workers are employed in the coal mine and break down those workers by occupation and location for the 12 biggest occupations.
2. We consider a scenario where the mine hypothetically closed seven years ago. We then use microdata on job advertisements to see how long it takes those workers to find new jobs based on their occupation and whether they are required to relocate within NSW or nationally to find a new job.

Our analysis assumes no additional policy interventions to support the transition and no active management of the workforce disruption.
1) If workers do not relocate, 28% of workers in the 12 biggest occupations find a new job within one year, 35% find a new job within two years, 39% find a new job within three years and 43% find a new job within four years. This means that 57% of workers don’t find a new job even after 4 years.
2) If workers are willing to relocate to somewhere else within NSW, 52% find a job in one year, 67% in two years, 85% in three years and 100% in four years.
3) If workers are willing to relocate to anywhere in Australia, 98% find a job in one year and 100% find a job in two years.
Across all scenarios, motor mechanics and metal fabricators have the easiest time finding new jobs, followed by truck drivers, fitters, electricians, shotfirers (explosives) and mechanical engineers. Those who struggle the most to find new jobs are miners, mine deputies, production managers, mining engineers and drillers.
These results give us valuable insights into where governments should target supports, based on the individual's occupation, location and skills profile, and what sort of support they will likely need, such as retraining and reskilling support, job search support, financial supports to assist in relocating, and income supports during the transition. By better targeting these measures, we are able to direct more resources to those who need it most, while helping to address the skills shortage that many Australian industries are now facing.
Read our latest posts

Unlocking the productivity dividend of digital government
Our latest research in collaboration with Microsoft examines how cloud infrastructure can unlock substantial productivity gains for the Australian Government. This study reveals that the Government could unlock $1.4 billion a year in fiscal savings and productivity gains to 2035 through public cloud's efficient use of IT labour and infrastructure. We find that government agencies can reduce their IT budgets by 7 to 28 per cent through 2035, while delivering enhanced cybersecurity, resilience, and service delivery across the public sector.
2 Sep, 2025

Unlocking Australia's R&D potential
Our research in collaboration with Atlassian, the BCA and Cochlear sets out a path forward for Australia to realise its R&D potential. Australia’s productivity growth is at a 60-year low, driven in part by declining business investment in R&D. Our latest report highlights the critical role large businesses play in Australia’s innovation ecosystem and the urgent need for policy reform. Despite strong talent and institutions, Australia underperforms global peers due to high costs and uncompetitive incentives. The report outlines six targeted reforms - including simplified R&D tax incentives and a commercialisation premium - that could together generate $7.7 billion in annual economic output and lift productivity by 0.1%, with a fiscally neutral impact. With the Strategic Examination of R&D underway, this is a pivotal opportunity to restore Australia’s innovation edge.
28 Jul, 2025

Digital platforms and competition in Australia
Our latest research in collaboration with Apple examines proposals to introduce an ex ante competition framework for digital platforms in Australia by assessing digital platform regulations in international jurisdictions. We find that jurisdictions that have implemented ex ante regimes have experienced implementation challenges, with consequences for users and the economy. This study highlights that the need for regulatory regimes to preserve the benefits delivered by platforms while maintaining the flexibility to adapt to rapidly evolving technologies.
24 Jul, 2025

Climate Risk Index for the European Energy Sector
Mandala Partners in partnership with Zurich Resilience Solutions has produced Europe's first comprehensive Climate Risk Index for renewable energy infrastructure across five major European markets. This groundbreaking analysis reveals the scale of climate vulnerability facing Europe's clean energy transition and provides actionable insights for building resilience across France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK. Nearly half of Europe's renewable generation capacity is in critical climate risk categories, threatening the foundation of the continent's energy security and economic stability.
16 Jul, 2025