Modelling the impact of economic coercion
16.06.2023 - 07:19
Mandala conducted research in conjunction with the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on the impact of economic coercion on the Australian economy.
Economic modelling can help us understand the impact of 'economic coercion' - tariffs and trade bans that limit export and import relationships between countries.
We conducted econometric modelling using the G-Cubed CGE model to understand alternative scenarios of economic coercion on different countries and sectors.
The first set of scenarios examined impacts on different countries - looking at the impact of trade bans on G7 countries (USA, UK, Canada, Japan, France, Germany, Italy) and Australia.
The second set of scenarios applied the effects to different sectors. This modelled the impact of trade sanctions targeting different sectors including mining, energy, agriculture, durable manufactured goods, non-durable manufactured goods and services.
In total, this implied 42 scenarios of consideration.
Economic coercion results in a range of negative effects and offsetting positive effects for an economy
These negative effects can include reduced prices, output, investment and employment.
At the same time, markets and exchange rates will adjust - recalibrating for these effects.
We used the G-cubed Computational General Equilibrium model to understand the impacts of various shocks to the Australian economy - highlighting the economy's resilience.
Through markets re-directing and re-balancing, our economy is more resilient than we may have thought to trade restrictions.
Read our latest posts
The value of shifting to four-year parliamentary terms
This research quantifies significant benefits of extending Commonwealth House of Representatives' terms from three to four years. While Australia's states and territories have adopted four-year terms, the Commonwealth remains among only eight countries globally with three-year or shorter terms.Our analysis shows potential gains of $59-71 billion over 20 years through reducing election frequency. Benefits include $4.6 billion in avoided direct costs, $40.7 billion in enhanced business investment from reduced electoral uncertainty, and $14-26 billion through improved government policy.
17 Mar, 2025
Going global: Unlocking the growth potential of Australian pension capital
In partnership with IFM Investors and Super Members Council, Mandala has developed a landmark report highlighting the growing contribution that Australia’s retirement savings and pension system has on investments globally. Australia has one of the world’s largest pools of retirement savings with the country’s pension assets totalling approximately US$2.8 trillion. Australian pension funds are forecast to invest trillions of dollars in international markets by 2035 as they scour the globe to deliver the best investment returns for their millions of members, with the US coming out as the top investment destination. According to this new report, Australian pension fund investment in the US is expected to more than double over the next decade - from US$400 billion to over US$1 trillion.
23 Feb, 2025
The Zurich-Mandala Climate Risk Index: The impact of climate change on Australia's schools
For the first time, the Zurich-Mandala Climate Risk Index has been used to analyse the risk of climate change to 9,829 primary and secondary schools across Australia. The index uses IPCC climate modelling along with Zurich's proprietary climate impact assessments to understand the unique risks faced by individual schools. Extreme heat is projected to reduce writing, spelling, grammar & punctuation, and numeracy by over 7% in some parts of the country by 2060, with students in the Northern Territory and Queensland disproportionately impacted. Two-thirds of schools in Australia currently face high climate risk. This is set to increase to 84% of schools by 2060 under an intermediate climate scenario with 2 degrees Celsius of warming. Australian students are projected to experience 34 annual heatwave days by 2060.
2 Feb, 2025
Unlocking Growth: How Fintech Payment Solutions Empower Small Businesses
Small businesses have been among the biggest beneficiaries of the transition to fintech-powered modern payments systems, with the average benefits across all fintech solutions totalling $9 billion as a result of their adoption. Of the $9 billion in net benefits, $8 billion has come from increased revenues by adopting these services, and $1 billion from reduced costs. Notably, over 30% of businesses reported an increase in revenue of over 2.5% as a result of adopting a fintech payment solution.
31 Jan, 2025