Growing Australia's iron advantage
28.11.2024 - 03:47
Our latest report, commissioned by Boundless, presents new research that reveals Australia's ability to competitively supply 20% of global green iron by 2050. This would reduce global steel emissions by 1.7% - surpassing Australia's current total emissions of 1.2% - while adding $103 billion to the economy and supporting 27,500 direct jobs. However, realising this opportunity requires addressing significant challenges including a significant build out of renewable energy generation, storage and transmission and the commercialisation of green iron technologies. Urgent policy support is needed to address these challenges and unlock private investment.
Australia could produce 20% of global green iron by 2050...
• 53% of global steel production in 2050 is forecast to be green (30%) or lower emissions (23%) steel
• The shift away from conventional steelmaking will create new supply chains
• Australia has the renewable energy capabilities to produce green iron, particularly compared to other iron ore exporters and existing iron producers
• Australia is forecast to be a cost-competitive producer of green iron in 2030 and 2050 if the industry can get to scale
• Australia could supply 20% of global green iron in 2050 (310Mt)
...reducing global emissions by 1.7% and generating growth
• Steel production is highly emissions intensive, generating between 6% to 9% of global CO2 emissions
• Ironmaking is the most emissions intensive part of the steel value chain, responsible for up to 90% of emissions
• Australia's green iron potential is equivalent to reducing global steel emissions by 1.7%, surpassing Australia's current emissions (1.2% of global emissions)
• Australia's green iron potential could add $103 billion to the economy and support 27,500 direct jobs in 2050
The industry faces short-term feasibility and scale challenges
• Australia's green iron potential requires 16TWh of additional renewable energy generation by 2030 and 775TWh by 2050 (nearly 2.4 times the National Renewable Energy Target for 2030)
• >90% of this electricity is used to make green hydrogen
• $28.8 billion of investment could be required by 2030 to kick-start green iron production, including a production plant, hydrogen facility and renewable energy and battery systems
• Approvals processes and the risk of new technologies continue to be barriers to investment
Policy solutions should prioritise these immediate issues
• In the short term, key barriers are the feasibility of early-stage technologies, scale of infrastructure required and availability of capital
• Policy initiatives should urgently address these barriers to enable large-scale investment and drive industry growth
• As the industry moves towards a 'scale-up' phase, additional support will be required to maintain Australia's forecast cost competitiveness, connect Australian supply to demand, and develop a skilled workforce
Read our latest posts
How EV adoption insulates Australia against oil supply shocks
Mandala’s latest research finds that the adoption of electric vehicles is helping to insulate Australians from the oil supply shocks. This analysis looks at the contribution of Australia’s electric vehicle fleet to our petrol reserves, as well as the savings in fuel costs for Australian households.
16 Mar, 2026
Shaping the Australian banking system for a changing economy
Mandala’s latest research, prepared for the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, finds that Australian banking has been transformed beyond recognition by technology, globalisation, and regulatory change. However, policy has not kept pace. Major banks now face a shrinking revenue base while providing a growing suite of collective goods including regional branches, ATM networks, and payment infrastructure, that comparable financial institutions are not required to provide. The report finds that declining profitability and an uneven regulatory playing field amid rising geopolitical uncertainty place Australia's financial resilience at risk. It recommends three principles for policymakers to shape Australia’s banking system to best serve our national interest. First, consider system-wide impacts of policy settings. Second, apply the same obligations to firms conducting the same activities with the same risk. Third, assess how overseas firms operating in critical parts of the financial system would behave in a crisis.
15 Mar, 2026
The Fragmentation Tax
Australian retailers operate across a patchwork of inconsistent state and territory regulations that, left unchecked, will cost the economy $26 billion and households $9.4 billion over the next decade. Commissioned by the Australian Retail Council, this Mandala report finds that regulatory fragmentation in retail - Australia's second-largest employer, generating $649 billion in economic activity annually - is compounding the country's productivity crisis at the worst possible time. The report identifies specific issues in transport and logistics, and packaging and waste as priority areas for reform, where harmonisation alone would inject up to $1.65 billion into the economy over 10 years. It recommends the Federal Government use its National Competition Policy framework to drive reform - including a $260 million increase to the National Productivity Fund, a new National Harmonisation Council, and a mandate that Regulatory Impact Statements explicitly quantify fragmentation risks.
23 Feb, 2026
Reforming Victoria's Windfall Gains Tax
Victoria's Windfall Gains Tax (WGT), introduced in July 2023, has compounded a decade of new and increased property taxes that have made Melbourne the most costly major city in Australia for development. Commissioned by the Property Council Victoria, this Mandala report finds that developer taxes and charges now account for 18% of total costs on Melbourne developments - double the rate of Sydney - and that the average WGT liability pushes project returns below the viability threshold. The analysis estimates that removing the WGT could unlock $1.4 billion in additional annual investment, support 2,700 jobs and deliver the equivalent of 3,100 new homes per year by 2030. The report also presents a suite of targeted reforms across financial relief, predictability, and policy alignment that would restore investor confidence while balancing the government's revenue objectives.
23 Feb, 2026