Impact of generative AI on skills in the workplace
20.02.2024 - 02:25
Research by Mandala Partners in partnership with the Future Skills Organisation examines the impact of generative AI on finance, technology and business occupations, and the ramifications this will have on the training system in Australia. Industry estimates of the impact of generative AI in Australia range from between $45 billion to $115 billion by 2030. With Australia projected to have a 370,000 digital worker shortfall by 2026, according to the Growing Australia’s Digital Workforce report, these findings will be crucial in considering how to tailor the training system to meet demand.
The occupations with the highest required skill level are more likely to change as generative AI systems are implemented.
The primary impact on the training system will be at the university level as occupations that generally require university qualifications typically have greater exposure to generative AI. Within the Vocational Education and Training (VET) system, higher level qualifications are also more likely to face disruption.
“To determine the impact on Australia’s training system, and in particular VET, we mapped estimates of the impact on the human abilities that form the fundamental building blocks of tasks, skills and occupations. This allowed us to estimate the impacts at the occupation, qualification and unit of competency level.”
– Director Tom McMahon, recounting the methodology of the research.
In the Financial Services training package, the greatest exposure to generative AI is in qualifications preparing people for roles in accounting and clerking for financial services firms. In the Business Services training package, the greatest exposure is seen in administration and call centre roles. In the ICT training package, the greatest exposure is seen in software development and programming roles.
Generative AI will affect the tasks that we perform in different ways: some automated, many augmented, and others adapted.
Tasks that AI systems can manage entirely on their own will be automated, increasing efficiency and eliminating routine effort.
Tasks will be augmented where there is a synergy where AI enhances human abilities, allowing for collaborative work that harnesses the strengths of both AI and human judgment. Evidence of this impact is already evident in tasks associated with writing, translation, research and software development.
Specific tasks adapt to incorporate AI-driven insights or actions, requiring humans to interpret, validate, or combine these outputs. Evidence of this can be seen in tasks such as classification and editing AI generated text.
With Australia projected to have a 370,000 digital worker shortfall by 2026, according to the Growing Australia’s Digital Workforce report, these findings will be crucial in considering how to tailor the training system to meet demand.
Read the full report on the Future Skills Organisation website.
Read our latest posts
Decarbonising Australia’s road freight network
Mandala’s latest research, prepared for Energy Futures Foundation, sets out a policy roadmap for decarbonising Australia’s road freight network which could help to drive economic, environmental and social benefits. Emissions in the transport sector grew 0.3 Mt CO2-e in 2025. Emissions in all other sectors fell. Australia has a critical window to decarbonise its road freight network, but the current policy settings have Australia on the wrong track. A policy suite that targets cost, infrastructure and regulatory barriers could add an additional 1.5 million battery electric trucks to the road by 2050 and be cost neutral for the budget. Setting up the right policies now could deliver $138 billion in economic growth over the next 25 years, create 900 thousand jobs by 2050 and reduce emissions by 181 Mt CO2-e – equivalent to 41% of Australia’s 2025 annual emissions. These policies would also save 3,300 lives and reduce externality costs associated with heavy vehicles by $18.5 billion by 2050.
27 Mar, 2026
How EV adoption insulates Australia against oil supply shocks
Mandala’s latest research finds that the adoption of electric vehicles is helping to insulate Australians from the oil supply shocks. This analysis looks at the contribution of Australia’s electric vehicle fleet to our petrol reserves, as well as the savings in fuel costs for Australian households.
16 Mar, 2026
Shaping the Australian banking system for a changing economy
Mandala’s latest research, prepared for the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, finds that Australian banking has been transformed beyond recognition by technology, globalisation, and regulatory change. However, policy has not kept pace. Major banks now face a shrinking revenue base while providing a growing suite of collective goods including regional branches, ATM networks, and payment infrastructure, that comparable financial institutions are not required to provide. The report finds that declining profitability and an uneven regulatory playing field amid rising geopolitical uncertainty place Australia's financial resilience at risk. It recommends three principles for policymakers to shape Australia’s banking system to best serve our national interest. First, consider system-wide impacts of policy settings. Second, apply the same obligations to firms conducting the same activities with the same risk. Third, assess how overseas firms operating in critical parts of the financial system would behave in a crisis.
15 Mar, 2026
The Fragmentation Tax
Australian retailers operate across a patchwork of inconsistent state and territory regulations that, left unchecked, will cost the economy $26 billion and households $9.4 billion over the next decade. Commissioned by the Australian Retail Council, this Mandala report finds that regulatory fragmentation in retail - Australia's second-largest employer, generating $649 billion in economic activity annually - is compounding the country's productivity crisis at the worst possible time. The report identifies specific issues in transport and logistics, and packaging and waste as priority areas for reform, where harmonisation alone would inject up to $1.65 billion into the economy over 10 years. It recommends the Federal Government use its National Competition Policy framework to drive reform - including a $260 million increase to the National Productivity Fund, a new National Harmonisation Council, and a mandate that Regulatory Impact Statements explicitly quantify fragmentation risks.
23 Feb, 2026