Earth Fire Alliance: Understanding Wildfires for a Safer Planet
14.06.2024 - 06:53
Mandala has partnered with Earth Fire Alliance, the global non-profit coalition committed to delivering transformative real-time data and insights from all wildfires on Earth, to report on the economic impact of wildfires. Wildfires are increasing in frequency and intensity; early detection and prevention can help minimize costs and damages sustainably, and potentially save lives. As extreme wildfires are projected to increase up to 33% by 2050, our research highlights early detection could reduce annual direct fire damage costs by approximately US$1.2 billion across Australia, USA, and Southern Europe alone. The most significant, and harder to quantify savings, will be from data-driven initiatives beyond suppression that discern beneficial fires from potential disasters, helping restore a natural balance with wildfire.
Wildfires are a global problem, causing large scale destruction with regions across the globe experiencing extensive damage.
Sub-Saharan Africa experiences the most annual fires per square kilometer, with reports indicating that some parts of the continent face 10,000 to 20,000 fires per square kilometer each year.
In the Americas, wildfires are a persistent concern. The United States has seen between 1.5 million and 4.2 million hectares of land affected by wildfires annually since 2000.
In Europe, the European Union witnessed over 550,000 hectares of land burned in 2021, which increased to 750,000 hectares in 2022. Mediterranean countries such as Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal are among the most impacted by these incidents.
South-East Asia and Oceania also experience very destructive fires. The 2019-2020 Australian wildfires were particularly significant, with over 19 million hectares of land burned.
Tree cover loss due to fire has been increasing over the last 20 years, with 6.7M hectares lost in 2022.
Globally, the wildfires have led to increasing rates of destruction. This can be measured by monitoring the loss of tree cover due to fire. Since 2001, tree cover loss due to fire has increased, from 2.5M hectares in 2001 to 6.7M hectares in 2022. Cover loss peaked in 2016 with 9.6M hectares lost. Over this period, the proportion of all tree cover loss due to fire has increased, from 16% in 2001 to 43% in 2022.
Extreme wildfires are projected to increase by up to 33% by 2050
Dangerous wildfires have increased in frequency and intensity over the last twenty years and are expected to continue increasing in the coming decades.
Projections from the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) have suggested that even under a lower emissions scenario, extreme wildfires could increase by 9-14% by 2030 (compared to 2020 figures), and by 31-52% by 2100.
The number of high-risk days for extreme fire weather could increase by an average of 3 additional days per year than the 1990-2010 average (to 21 days per year). This assumes staying within the Paris Agreement's 1.5C target would. Surpassing 1.5C could elevate this to 24-40 days per year.
Earth Fire Alliance is in the build phase of their flagship program, a 50+ satellite constellation called FireSat.
Developed in partnership with frontline fire chiefs, scientists, and climate experts, FireSat will be a first-of-its-kind satellite constellation to focus specifically on wildfire, conditions, and ecological effects. With its full constellation of satellites, FireSat will scan the globe for wildfire activity every 20 minutes analysing the landscape across six different spectral bands to see wildfires through clouds, smoke, darkness, and extreme sunlight.
FireSat data products will inform our frontline where wildfires are, how fast they are moving, and how hot they are burning, helping agencies around the world protect their communities. Continuous global monitoring of conditions and impacts will enable a more comprehensive understanding and mitigation of the extreme carbon impacts from megafires.
• Avoided damage from early detection is estimated at 7% of total cost estimates across Australia, the USA and Southern Europe – representing approximately US$1.2billion a year.
• The number of high-risk days for extreme fire weather could increase by an average of 3 additional days per year versus the 1990-2010 average (to 21 days per year). This assumes staying within the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target. Surpassing 1.5° could elevate this to 24-40 days per year.
• Prolonged and frequent wildfires pose a significant and escalating threat to natural capital, as they can lead to significant land use changes, disrupt flora and fauna populations, causing localised extinctions, and increase atmospheric aerosols whilst reducing natural carbon stocks.
• Bushfires directly cost Australia AUD$1.4billion annually, however the indirect costs are even more significant, with AUD$2.2 billion in labor productivity losses and an additional AUD$0.8billion annually in health costs.
• Wildfires directly cost the USA US$11.3 billion annually, with the largest component being property damages. However, the indirect costs of wildfire could be as large as US$415 billion annually, with US$208 billion in labor productivity losses and an additional US$207 billion in health costs.
• Southern European countries impacted to the tune of €1.4billion annually, comprising €0.4 billion in costs borne by Portugal and Spain, €0.3billion by Italy, €0.2 billion by Greece and €0.1 billion by France. The largest component of this is carbon costs which represented €0.9billion.
Read the full report including our global impact analysis here.
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