How deeper EV adoption can protect the UK against oil supply shocks
15.05.2026 - 02:52
Mandala's research looks at how passenger electric vehicle uptake can help stretch the UK's liquid fuel supplies in times of supply shocks.
Mandala's modelling, cited in The Guardian, was developed as a follow-up to its earlier analysis for Australia, and found that the UK holds around 22 days of petrol and 21 days of diesel in reserve, in line with its oil stocking obligations from its time as an EU member state. This supply remains anchored to one of the world's least stable regions.
The UK's growing passenger EV fleet has already begun to improve fuel independence in a material way. Passenger EVs and hybrids are saving the equivalent of 2.01 days of petrol reserve cover and 0.42 days of diesel cover. If the UK matched Norway's EV penetration rate, the highest in the world, petrol reserve cover would grow by a further 7.6 days, a 34 per cent increase on the current reserve, and diesel cover by a further 3.1 days, around 14 per cent.
EV drivers are also already insulated from the price shocks hitting petrol and diesel users. Within a fortnight of the conflict escalating, petrol prices rose by 11p per litre and diesel by 20p per litre. At current petrol prices, it is already around £580 cheaper per year to run an EV than a petrol equivalent. A recent court ruling reducing VAT on public charge points to 5 per cent will improve the economics further, saving EV drivers up to £12 per full charge.
Read the full research note here.
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